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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd